Burnley 0-1 Manchester City Review

Premier League GW33

After a big game, you usually see a drop-off in the next fixture, physically and mentally. All the pressure was on beating Arsenal to remain in the title race. On the flipside, Burnley would be relegated with a defeat, which they wouldn’t want to happen at home. Whilst some will look at the game with goal difference in mind, these are the games where missed chances, and a late couple of corners can see you killed by drawing. Undoing all the work done in beating Arsenal.

MOTM: ABDUKODIR KHUSANOV 

There are a few candidates, and the team not putting away their chances takes away from others getting it, but Khusanov was fantastic in managing the threat Burnley had in the first half, a crucial block inside the box, and the pace to prevent the opposition from getting near the box for a shot on a few occasions in transition. Made the most clearances (5) and won all of his aerial duels (4/4). At the end of the season, there should be a lot of praise to go around for his recruitment and development.

Notable Stats:

• Last night Against Burnley, Rayan Cherki became just the third player on record (since 2003-04) to have 8+ shots (8) and create 8+ chances (8) in a Premier League game, after Cole Palmer (9 shots, 8 chances created against Manchester United in April 2024) and David Silva (10 shots, 11 chances created against West Brom in March 2015).

• Man City will end the day top of the Premier League for just the seventh time this season and the first time since 21st August 2025 (after MD1). The Citizens have never failed to go on and win the title, having led after 33 games or more.

• Abdukodir Khusanov (2,457) is just 99 minutes away from overtaking Ruben Dias (2,556) as the most played central defender for Manchester City this season.

Game Stats:

Burnley 0-1 Manchester City

• xG: 1.21 - 3.4

• xThreat: 0.7 - 1.55

• Possession: 35.0% - 65.0%

• Field Tilt: 14.3% - 85.7%

• Penalty Box Shots: 5 - 19

• Deep Entries: 7 - 27

• PPDA: 13.7 - 8.4

• High Turnovers: 2 - 4

Most Used Back Fours 25/26
1. NOR - JG - RD - MN
13GP 11W 1D 1L 13GA 5CS 2.62 PPG

2. NOR - MG - AK - MN
4GP 4W 1GA 3CS 3.0 PPG

3. RAN - MG - RD - MN
4GP 3W 1D 3GA 2CS 2.5 PPG

4. RAN - MG - AK - MN
4GP 2W 2D 4GA 1CS 2.0 PPG

If you want to stay up-to-date on individual player minutes, back four combinations, underlying numbers, and more, check out the live Google sheet below. 👇

Only one change for Manchester City, Ait-Nouri coming in for Rodri, and Nico O’Reilly moving into midfield. Otherwise, the team and setup we’re used to seeing since the last international break. You could read something into this with Nico Gonzalez, but there was always going to be one change. Ait-Nouri deserved a start, and you’d be hard pushed to drop O’Reilly or Bernardo for him. At this stage of the season, you can make an argument for Pep not trusting 10 players, like every title run-in. Once the group is locked in, it’s not easy to find a start.

Burnley started the game with the first chance. Another save from Donnarumma with Burnley on a fast break. 0.51xGOT for the shot by J. Anthony. He’s now up to +2.82 goals prevented in these situations this season. Ederson, by comparison, last season in the PL had +0.2 goals prevented.

Arsenal (H) double save against Havertz and Martinelli, 1v1 with Thiago against Brentford (A), Pino for Palace (A), Gordon for Newcastle (H), and Aaronson for Leeds (A) are his best saves from fast breaks this season. All were important in not dropping points.

There was very little, if any, press from Burnley for him to deal with. It was the only save he needed to make on the night, which you expect in these types of games, but it stopped Burnley from getting any sort of early momentum. It reminded me of last season at Forest (A), the team lost 1-0 with Hudson-Odoi scoring at the near-post. The opposition is not bombarding you with shots, but with the best chance they get, you need your keeper to make the difference.

E. Haaland (5') 0-1
Shortly after that, it’s Manchester City that opens the scoring. They had a couple of good chances with Silva and O’Reilly, the best falling to Cherki (4’) in the opening minutes, and were knocking on the door in the lead-up.

Donnarumma passes out to Guehi, O'Reilly drops to receive, and passes it back to him. Long ball over the top to Doku with City 3v4 against the backline of Burnley. You can spot Khusanov pointing for Guehi to play it over the top.

Doku is able to bring it down, hold off the opposition player behind him, and move inside to play the pass through for Haaland. Before the ball arrives, Doku slows right down, buying the space to anticipate the bounce of the ball.

A couple of touches, doesn't try to move inside despite having the space, and goes straight to the edge of the 6-yard box. Then chipping the keeper once Dubravka has already shifted his body away from the middle. Leaving only a hand to clear.

Other than Ekdal having a shot blocked on the edge of the 6-yard box (45’+1) from a set-piece, Burnley didn’t have another shot inside the City box after the 29th minute. Only a couple shots outside the box and one on the edge of it. The early threat fizzled out quite quickly once Manchester City were able to manage the transitions better.

O’Reilly and Silva naturally tend to drift ahead of the ball, not be as aware of the rest defense structure as Rodri and Nico Gonzalez, and with one poor pass, Burnley can end up running at the back three of City without a midfielder behind the ball applying pressure. That improved as the half went on, and once Nico Gonzalez came on in the second half, but in the early stages, it gave Burnley an opening that a better team might have punished.

Rayan Cherki made the most box entries, along with Semenyo on the right side, Doku on the left; they were always able to drive the team up the pitch. For Premier League games this season, this was the most box entries (36), xG (3.40), and chances created (23), for Manchester City in a single match.

You can also see highlighted in the shot map included below. On another day, this game is 4-0 to Manchester City, with the performance staying the same, and some slightly better actions finishing. With that in mind, it’s important not to read too much into the game. Coming off the big game against Arsenal, to still create that volume of chances, enough to win the game, that’s what you want to see.

The best chances fell to Semenyo (49’) at the near-post with his shot over the bar, Haaland (55’) hitting the far post, Haaland’s shot in the middle of the box (80’) missing over the bar, and O’Reilly’s shot (90’) on the edge of the 6-yard box that was saved right at the end of the game. The latter being the best of the bunch. There was a hat-trick Haaland left on the table, but at the end of the day, three points were the target, and they got the job done.

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Moving Forward

This quote by Marc Guehi gives a great perspective on the difficulty of these games, where everyone is expecting you to score lots of goals after the big result against Arsenal. It’s not that simple. Especially in the Premier League this season, where all teams are struggling to score bundles of goals.

Three points have taken the team to the top of the table and have now unlocked this title race. Five games to win the Premier League. Rodri is reportedly close to a return, and there is plenty of time before the next league match against Everton (A). Now attention turns to the FA Cup SF and managing the fitness of the starters.

Bernardo Silva had the most defensive actions (12), touches (118), and passes completed (85) for Manchester City against Burnley. He created the second most chances (7) behind only Rayan Cherki (8). 7/11 ground duels won. 3/5 dribbles successful.

Whether it’s dropping into the backline during the buildup, baiting the opposition press, recovering the ball in the middle of the pitch, or rotation with players out wide. Bernardo Silva is everywhere, impacting each phase of the game in his final season.

Rayan Cherki created the most chances against Burnley and provided the second most passes into the final third. Led the team for box entries. Completed 2/4 dribbles and 2/2 long passes. Guardiola spoke recently about Cherki not being found all the time in games. He’s there when we’re 0-0, but after the first goal, he’s not. Missing the goal contributions in this game, but the persistence Guardiola was asking for, which you saw all the time from De Bruyne, to create again and again, was from Cherki.

The providers for Erling Haaland since he joined Manchester City, with the assists that have come this season highlighted. Jeremy Doku leads the way with only Nunes, Foden, and De Bruyne with more than him. One of the biggest areas of his game that fans criticised was providing for Erling Haaland. He’s put that to bed this season.

It’s also refreshing to hear Doku speak about his desire to improve in front of goal, to score the ‘easy goals’ like Raheem Sterling, and he’s working on that area in his game. He’s put up 15 goal contributions in each season at the club. If he can add more goals, then that’ll bring him to 20-25 per season.

Next up for Manchester City is the FA Cup match against Southampton at Wembley on Saturday, the 25th of April. The chance to make a fourth consecutive FA Cup Final, compete for another trophy at Wembley, provides Guardiola with a lot of questions around his selection. How many players need a rest?

There is a full week between this match and the next PL one against Everton. Some players looked tired against Burnley. O’Reilly lost 10 of his 14 duels in the game. On the other hand, the substitutes haven’t made an impact either. Difficult calls to make.

Five games remaining for Arsenal and Manchester City to win in the Premier League. Both have gone on 5 or more game-winning runs this season. Manchester City won 6 from November 29th to December 27th. Arsenal won 5 from September 28th to November 1st, and another 5-game run from December 13th to the 3rd of January. With how both teams have looked throughout this season, whoever wins all five most likely wins the title. At least one of them is dropping points.