Changing Direction: Gianluigi Donnarumma

Born in Castellammare di Stabia, the Italian goalkeeper is widely regarded as one of the best in the world for his position. At 16, he was the second-youngest goalkeeper to debut in Serie A, breaking into the first team and starting 30 league matches. At 17, he was the youngest Italian to play for the U21s and for the National team. When he made his debut for them, Donnarumma was replacing Gianluigi Buffon at halftime in a friendly against France. His idol.

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At 26 years old, Donnarumma (319) has already got more career league starts than Alisson (313) and is not far behind Ederson (349). For any other club in the Premier League, signing him is regarded as one of the best moves made in the window, but for Manchester City, it's a polarizing move given the fit and demand we’ve seen placed on Ederson to play out from the back.

That particular point, about experience, that the team loses in a rebuild, Donnarumma brings in abundance. If we look at the cumulative league 90s played between the 2015/16 season and 2024/25, he’s got more than Ederson, Alisson, and Neuer in that period. Despite arriving in his prime (26), Donnarumma comes into the City team with the experience most goalkeeper only reach in their thirties.

Then, if we shift gears and are looking for experience in key moments, there are a few that stand out. First was winning the Euro 2020 Player of the Tournament, making two penalty saves in the final against England as Italy won the competition. The other is the Champions League campaign of PSG last season, having to perform at Villa Park, the Emirates, and Anfield. In all of those games, tough away grounds, Donnarumma made the difference with his saves, all are grounds Manchester City will want to win at if they are to compete for the title this season and beyond.

There is a clear value in bringing in a keeper of his experience on and off the pitch. 70+ caps for Italy already. To be a vocal leader in the dressing room, communicate with the backline, telling players who to mark in set-pieces, and, similar to Rodri, demand certain standards to be met. Along with being focused, compared to Ederson, who gave the impression in the last season that there was one boot out the door and a move was coming.

There is something to be said about how much more vocal Donnarumma is with the backline, as well as the team in defending set-pieces, compared to Ederson. As far as I’m aware, he speaks some French, Spanish, and English, in addition to fluent Italian. It could have been a concern if he didn’t speak another language. Guardiola himself is fluent in Italian, so he’ll have no issues being clear on what he expects from the keeper.

If we go back to his beginning, Donnarumma was taken to train at the ASD Napoli Club (2003) in his native Castellammare di Stabia by his uncle. Fearless at a young age and only set on being a goalkeeper, even when he was four years old. The move to AC Milan came in 2013 when he was 14, and his older brother was already playing there. In the Rossoneri youth academy, Donnarumma was always playing in the age group ahead of him, and just before his 16th birthday, he was invited to the senior team. Signing his first professional contract with Milan 1st July 2015.

Although he’d go on to start 30 Serie A matches during the 2015/16 season, he started the season as the third-choice goalkeeper, as you’d expect for any talented 16-year-old. Behind Diego Lopez and Christian Abbiati. Made his league debut on the 25th October 2015 against Sassuolo as the team won 2-1. Three days later, he’d keep a clean sheet in a 1-0 win against Chievo. Another win followed, and by the start of 2016, Donnarumma had taken over from Lopez as the first-choice goalkeeper for Milan, at the age of 16. It’s no surprise that a new contract quickly followed. That is something you wouldn’t expect from a 16-year-old goalkeeper.

Six seasons with AC Milan, starting 30+ league games in each of them, before he made the move to PSG. By 21, Donnarumma has started over 200 games in the Italian top flight. Milan always finished outside the top four whilst he was there until the final season (20/21), finishing second. Although they were 12 points behind Inter Milan, there was no real prospect of a Scudetto. The only trophy he won with Milan was the 2016 Supercoppa Italiana.

In the summer of 2021, he made the move to PSG, signing a five-year deal, and competing with Navas to be the starter. Sharing the net in the first season, he’d become the undisputed number one 2022 onward. Last season, PSG managed the Treble with Donnarumma at the heart of that, in key moments for the CL win, and they managed to win four Ligue 1 titles in a row. Add to that two Coupe de France trophies and three Trophee des Champions, in Paris, he’s won it all.

In August 2015, when AC Milan were playing Tottenham in a pre-season game at the Allianz Arena, Guardiola was there to watch Donnarumma and went to speak to him at the end of the match. This is the beginning of the season Donnarumma would break into and become the first-choice keeper at Milan. There is certainly admiration there between the two. He would have been 16 at the time, of course, you’d expect that he could learn anything at that age. Ten years later, he’s made the move to Manchester City to finally work under Guardiola, and we’ve not seen the development of a ball-playing goalkeeper in that time. Although Donnarumma has spoken many times about always wanting to learn, his goalkeeping coach at Milan said as much, it does make you wonder how much room there is for improvement.

Since the signing was made on deadline day and Donnarumma has gone straight to work with the Italian National team, we’ve not seen a full interview on the move, like other signings this summer. But he did speak about the move at a press conference ahead of the World Cup qualifying matches.

When you think about the major keepers Guardiola has had in Valdes, Neuer, and Ederson. You don't draw a straight comparison to Donnarumma. When it comes to sweeping, during his time at PSG, he averages 1.01 actions outside his PA with an average distance of 14.1 yards. Ederson at Manchester City averages 1.55 actions with an average distance of 17.8. Part of that will be the league, as the keepers are more aggressive in the Premier League, and part of it will be the setup of the team.

In the graphic below, you can see the difference across the leagues, that in general, Premier League keepers are more aggressive than those in Ligue 1. Even with that in mind, Donnarumma is far away from Ederson here. We’ve seen in the opening three Premier League matches for James Trafford, judging the positioning and timing for when you come out to sweep has been crucial.

Over his career at PSG, in Ligue 1, Donnarumma averages 3.7 touches in the defensive third, outside of his penalty area. Ederson for Manchester City averages 6.9. Manuel Neuer at Bayern Munich averages 11.3. So when you’re looking at the keeper coming out to sweep balls in behind, Donnarumma, at least through the data, isn’t expected to do it as much as Ederson. Now, one part of that will be the team, as PSG has an athletic backline with the likes of Nuno Mendes and Hakimi. But you shouldn’t expect to see him sweep up like Ederson, even if there are improvements made.

When it comes to claiming crosses, during his league seasons at PSG, Donnarumma has averaged 0.68 crosses stopped per 90, which is 6.2% of the total crosses faced. Ederson averages at Manchester City 0.55 per 90 and 6.9% of total crosses stopped. Although not as explosive as other keepers, Donnarumma uses his size to be effective, punching the ball and getting his hand to the ball on crosses into he box. His issues/mistakes in this area have come when he's indecisive about the decision to come or not for the ball.

Just to compare to other goalkeepers in Europe’s T5 leagues, 24/25 Joan Garcia (64) stopped the most crosses, averaging 1.68 per 90, which is 9.6% of total crosses stopped. If we looked at the Premier League, then it’s Emiliano Martinez (54) and David Raya (53) who lead the way. Martinez averages 1.58 per 90, 11.2% stopped. Raya averages 1.39 per 90, 13.2% stopped.

If we compare that to Donnarumma (10) last season, he averaged 0.43 per 90, 5.0% stopped. Along with the discussion around playing out from the back, which we’ll touch on later, there are valid concerns to be had on how well he manages the crosses into the box. Looking at the 24/25 season, the number of inswinging corners per match is higher in the Premier League (3.1) than in Ligue 1 (2.0). Although the reverse is true for outswinging corners per match in the Premier League (1.0), it is lower than in Ligue 1 (1.8).

It would be claiming low balls that stand out as the biggest weakness here, although fearless in diving at the feet of an attacker, Donnarumma has been caught out with these. Whether it's low crosses driven into the box, or an attacker dribbling past him, where staying on your line or setting up to anticipate the shot would be better.

The injury record of Donnarumma is another positive to mention, something that his goalkeeping coach at Milan mentioned they worked a lot on. In five out of six Milan seasons, he started 36+ league matches. Since he joined PSG in the 21/22 season, Donnarumma has only missed 4 matches through injury. Ederson, in the same period, has missed 18.

His standout quality is the shot-stopping, exceptional reflexes, and adeptness at facing shots from close range and from distance. His focus is on positioning himself correctly for the shot. On his toes, ready to react, low position, given his reach, he can still cover anything above him. For long-range efforts, given his broad frame, being 6ft 5, with his agility, he's able to cover every corner of the net very well. Especially difficult to beat with his footwork to get across.

Last season, Ederson had his career PL best for shot-stopping numbers. He prevented more non-penalty goals than any other keeper (6.0). Donnarumma has had four seasons in his career with a better goals-prevented number than that. Since 2015, only Jan Oblak (45.4) and Brice Samba (41.0) have prevented more goals than Donnarumma (40.6) across Europe's T5 Leagues. This is the clear upgrade you are, whilst making a trade-off for what Ederson provides in the buildup.

Below is a look at the expected vs actual save % from Europe’s T5 leagues 23/24. In terms of the league, Donnarumma was the standout keeper, whilst in the Champions League, he struggled. During the 24/25 season that flipped, with him underperforming his PSxG (-3.3) in Ligue 1, and in the CL, he overperformed his PSxG (+2.2).

This is a look at the locations of the shots Donnarumma faced in the 23/24 season. Most of them are coming wide; a few shots are taken down the middle. Given the frame, how quickly he drops down low for shots, and his positioning to close down the angles. When you’ve got the frame Donnarumma has, you cannot make the best use of it unless you are focused on being in the right position to cover those angles off. Add to that, he doesn’t need a power/negative step to push away from the ground; he’s making saves from a standing position on his toes. Even when restricted, with his physique, he’s able to make great saves around the penalty area.

Donnarumma is an exceptional keeper at defending 1v1s, getting out to close the distance, positioning himself well to close the angles, and is willing to go forward for the ball inside his box. We’ve seen the value of that improvement when Ortega made a few key saves during the 23/24 season, none more relevant than the 1v1 save against Son.

You are trading off the ability of Ederson to step into the backline, to be your +1 in the buildup, and orchestrate the buildup. Although Ederson is an outlier here, there are goalkeepers available that are better with their feet than Donnarumma, so this is clearly the choice to be happy with the trade-off. I’d mentioned earlier about the drop off between the two for touches outside the penalty box, one big part of that is Ederson being willing to step into the backline, form a make-shift back four, and help the team build up. Donnarumma won’t be comfortable doing that.

If you're going to lose an outstanding ball-playing keeper, make sure the incoming keeper is outstanding at another quality; that is one angle you could take on the signing. Donnarumma will be able to initiate the buildup from the back, short, into the central defenders and pivots (to a degree). Invite pressure before passing. He can target specific spaces when kicking long. In the last three Ligue 1 seasons, he's misplaced only 2 short passes (5-15 yards). All of that, though, is to a degree.

The quality of long passes that Ederson provided will be a big difference between the two. How easily he can pick out the chipped passes to the full-backs on the touchline. The driven pass through the middle into the striker, dropping deep. The drop in passing quality is undeniable.

Compared to PSG, he's gaining a far better target in Erling Haaland than he's used to in Dembele, Doue, Barcola, and Kvara. But could he deliver the quality of passes, crisp, under the highest pressure, with the range that Ederson has? No, not at all. At PSG, it's to build short, but not to take too much risk with it. He's not expected to break lines like Ederson would. You'd be hoping that, given his aptitude for learning, being under a coach like Guardiola, he can take a step forward in this department. Still only being 26. Not to get near Ederson, but to improve.

This graphic from The Athletic gives you a good look at that passing range Ederson has. Rarely does Donnarumma reach the final third with his goal kicks; a vast majority of the goal-kicks are played short in the box for PSG. That difference continues into open play passes; rarely is Ederson passing inside his own box.

Here is a look at the passing map from Ederson during the 23/24 season for Manchester City. The clear standouts here are the range of passes reaching the touchline on either side, volume, and the distance he’s able to get on the long passes.

Here is Donnarumma in Ligue 1. The volume is lower, although he only started 24 matches, he’s completed 23.8 passes per 90. Ederson, during the 23/24 season, started 33 games in the PL and completed 31.4 passes per 90. Not only will the quality of passing drop with Donnarumma, but he’s going to be less comfortable with the volume that Ederson completed.

I’ve included below a thread on his twelve most recent penalties, a screenshot of Donnarumma the moment the ball has been struck, and then the result, either conceded or his save. This is another area you are gaining in when you are looking at the change of keepers. Ultimately, it’s about the trade-offs you are willing to make, as every keeper comes with weaknesses.

Across his career, Donnarumma has saved 15/43 penalties faced. Ederson has saved 6/55. That’s without including penalty shootouts. We saw recently against Liverpool in the Champions League, he can be decisive in those moments. We saw that further back, in the Euro 2020 final as well. You think about the Quarter-finals of the CL during the 23/24 season, Manchester City were knocked out by Real Madrid on penalties. It is only one angle, one piece of the puzzle, but that is something you gain with Donnarumma over Ederson, and as we find out every season, it always comes down to fine margins.

Some final points to mention. Manchester City from last season, seeing more and more shots. The increased demand on your keeper to make those saves. 24/25 was the first Premier League season Ederson faced over 3 shots on target per 90, averaged more than 2 saves per 90, and conceded more than a goal a game (1.01). His PSxG average at City was 0.79 per 90. Last season it was 1.16. The demand for better shot-stopping, even with the struggles of last season, has increased. That's without mentioning how much more important those qualities are consistently proven to be in the Champions League. For a team as dominant as Manchester City in recent years, they've only won the competition once under Guardiola.

When it comes to the shift in the buildup, we need to wait to see the changes. Guardiola must be happy with this different direction and confident that they can adapt to it. There are a few ways it could go, and we might not see the final additions until the 2026 summer to bring it all together. With Ederson, you knew if teams pressed man-to-man, he’s the spare man and has the quality to find the space. After that, it’s on his teammates to get to the ball in that space. You’ll need to find a different approach when Donnarumma is in goal.

In the PSG match at Anfield, Liverpool pressed very high, giving PSG issues when playing out from the back. Pacho and Marquinhos inside the box with Donnarumma. Vitinha tried to drop for goal-kicks next to him, but actually, he just compounded the problem by bringing the technical players into the way of the press.

So instead, Enrique puts Vitinha back into the midfield, and Dembele drops. Now, a Liverpool midfielder like Szoboszlai has a decision to make. Should I back the press and leave Vitinha in my cover shadow, stay with Vitinha in the midfield, or cover Demeble, who is dropping between the lines, where no central defender is willing to follow?

He decides to stick with Vitinha, allowing PSG more space to build up, and they left Demeble free between the lines, which all comes together for the goal. Then they did not do it again as Demeble was tracked. Following that, the buildup success shot up, and Mendes made sure to take a touch forward, in front of Salah, to open up the pass into Mendes, who can then progress the ball. On the right side, Donnarumma would pass to Marquinhos right away, rather than bait Diaz to press him, so the pressure never got too intense, and Diaz came to Marquinhos instead. Leaving Hakimi free. In all of this, Donnarumma's issues in the buildup are not a problem; they get around it.

That all being said, PSG's midfield is very dynamic, filled with technical players who could win their duels, keep everything crisp. At the moment, you couldn’t say the Manchester City midfield is as dynamic or crisp in its passing. They must improve to pull it off.

There will still be plenty of games where teams are happy to sit deep, rather than press City, and in those, his distribution is not important. But we saw even last season, you need the keeper to make one or two crucial saves. Palace (FA Cup), Forest (A), and Everton (H) all come to mind.

Something that Jon Mackenzie has pointed out is that more teams are willing to press City high now, disrupt, and take the chance of winning the ball high up the pitch in a good location. Stop them from getting clean entries into the final third. Stop them from getting into settled possession.

That leaves you with two main approaches to follow a more De Zerbi approach deep in the buildup: to use another midfielder deeper, like we saw from PSG last season, which requires you to be dynamic, or, like we've seen most recently from Liverpool vs Arsenal, as well as others, vacating the middle and pushing more players higher up. Creating overloads higher up the pitch for long balls/second balls.

That area in particular is something we've got to wait and see the approach Guardiola takes. I suspect it will be closer to what we’ve seen from PSG and De Zerbi. Right now, they are not clean or dynamic enough in the buildup. But it is clear, in those games against the high-pressing teams, you expect the shot-stopping strengths of Donnarumma to stand out like he's done for PSG against Arsenal and Liverpool.

Despite the unknown we have on how Guardiola wants the team to build up, you are making the trade-off and expecting Donnarumma to deliver the crucial saves across a season. Confident that the team can solve the buildup issues. The next three matches against United (H), Napoli (H), and Arsenal (A) are going to tell us a lot and are set up perfectly as games he will relish the opportunity to perform in.

If you’re looking for more on Donnarumma, then check out this podcast I did on the Ninety Three Twenty player with Sascha from the Keeper Analysis podcast. 👇

I’d also recommend checking out this article by Opta Analyst on the goalkeeper change. 👇