Manchester City 25/26 So Far

We’re already at the second International break of the season, with only ten games played by Manchester City. It’s far too early to be looking at the potential title winners, but we can reflect on the improvements made, the team's struggles so far, and the issues to resolve once they return.

Before we delve into the details, it’s worth emphasizing that the sample size is small for both the players and the team. Seasons are long, plenty of changes will happen along the way for all the teams involved in the Premier League, and injuries are inevitable.

Even within the opening seven games, we’ve seen the narrative shift from Liverpool having already won the title to Arsenal being now in the process of getting the trophy engraved. As Guardiola and all the players continue to hammer home, you take it game-by-game, and the aim is to be in the hunt come February.

The Premier League itself has already proven to be incredibly competitive as four teams are within three points of the leaders Arsenal, and even Sunderland in 9th is only three points off the Champions League spots. Aston Villa, Newcastle, and Brighton are all on fewer than ten points.

There has been a huge amount of churn internally as Pep Lijnders, Kolo Toure, and James French come in to join the backroom staff of Guardiola. Refreshing the group and bringing in new ideas.

Heading into the season, I put together a preview that included the different areas Hugo Viana needed to take a look at. Providing genuine back-up options for Erling Haaland and Rodri was a key area they resolved in the January transfer window, bringing in Omar Marmoush and Nico Gonzalez. The latter has developed quickly since arriving and impressed across the opening games, which we’ll cover a bit later on.

You’ve then got around the squad players like Foden, Cherki, Bobb, and even Mukasa, who are all capable of playing false nine. The team has options. It’s not only about a player starting the cup matches, but also being dependable during an injury period and allowing you to take off Haaland for the final 20 - 30 minutes. Not needing to push him to ninety minutes each game. Which adds up across the season.

During the 2024/25 season, the average age of the players making up the T10 for minutes played in the Premier League was 26.7. So far this season, the average age is 25.0, which was an important area for Viana to address in the squad, along with Guardiola in his selection. Bringing down the average age.

Attached below is the age of T15 for most minutes played across this season and last. Already this season, you can see that the group of players is mostly in their prime or entering it. The players in purple past peak age in Gundogan, De Bruyne, Akanji, and Ederson have all been moved on. Kovacic has dropped down the pecking order. Ortega will eventually be moved on. Bernardo Silva's role has been reduced, and he is expected to depart next summer.

Contract extensions were another, with work left to do. Extending Ruben Dias (2029), whilst having Gvardiol move to LCB and the development of Khusanov gives you a stable group as you look to churn through others in the position. Akanji departing in the summer, Stones’ contract running out next summer, and the option to move on to Nathan Ake. All whilst having Vitor Reis, Juma Bah, and Max Alleyne out on loan as options to look at next summer.

Savinho's (2031) extension was inevitable given the transfer noise in the summer. Nico O’Reilly’s (2030) and Rico Lewis's (2030) extensions were important, showing a pathway into the first team for academy players who had links to a move away in the summer. Now the attention turns to the two biggest contracts to extend in Rodri (2027) and Phil Foden (2027).

If you’re interested in the financial side of football, contracts, and wages, then check out Valuball linked here.

Throughout the summer, I posted online as well as spoke about in the newsletter, the race to meet the Champions League squad limits on non-homegrown players. With Stefan Ortega staying, they’re at the limit of 17. Who you’d expect to depart for minutes in January, or permanently by next summer. Moving on, Ederson, Akanji, and Gundogan were key to meeting that limit. Loaning out Claudio Echeverri, Vitor Reis, and Sverre Nypan to get minutes, develop, and not remain at the club unregistered.

Add to that reducing the wage bill as big earners like De Bruyne, Ederson, Walker, Grealish, and others are moved on. You’ve got younger players to move up the pecking order for minutes and to get new contracts. Not possible if you’re going to keep the older players on big contracts. John Stones and Bernardo Silva are set to depart in 2026, which will again free up huge portions of the wage bill for the next set of transfers. This churn has been crucial, but perhaps not as recognised because you’ve not seen the big contract extensions (Rodri, Foden) and incomings to match it.

That brings me to the right-back. Not bringing one in could prove to be a mistake, even though it’s clear that space wasn’t open in the squad until very late in the window. You’ve got short-term options in Khusanov, Nunes, Stones, and Lewis that, between them, can cover all sorts of games. So whether it is in January or the summer window, the right-back coming in must be the long-term option who's capable at both ends of the pitch. All types of games.

The loan players deserve their own full newsletter, and I plan to cover that once we reach the halfway point of the season. As it stands, Claudio Echeverri went to Leverkusen to chase Champions League football and hasn’t started a Bundesliga match. Jahmai Simpson-Pusey went to Celtic and has yet to play a minute for them, got left out of the Europa League squad, and was reported to be unfit to play.

On the flipside, Max Alleyne is looking like one of the best young central defenders in the Championship. Progressing the ball as well as he’s winning duels. Started 7/9 matches in the league for Watford and third for minutes played (596).

Vitor Reis has started 6/8 La Liga matches for Girona, missing the opener as he was late to join, and one game suspension due to a red card. Juma Bah has started 5/7 Ligue 1 matches for Nice. Divin Mubama has scored two goals for Stoke City and started 8/9 matches for them in the Championship. Also in the same league is Sverre Nypan at Middlesbrough, with just two starts of the nine he’s been available for.

Use of the academy was another area I pointed out for Viana to make use of, which will need more time to judge. Promising to see the number of CFA players involved in the training sessions, the League Cup match against Huddersfield, and the integration of Divine Mukasa into the first team.

Despite losing to Spurs (H) and Brighton (A), Manchester City are +6 points up on last season, if comparing directly to the same fixtures. Only Bournemouth (+9) and Spurs (+7) have won more. Beating Brentford (A) instead of dropping two points in the final ten minutes. Drawing against Arsenal (A) and minutes away from three points. Beating United (H) instead of collapsing in the final minutes.

For open play xG per 90, Manchester City (1.73) leads the Premier League, and they’re third for the lowest open play xGA conceded per 90 with 0.90. Only Arsenal (0.61) and Newcastle (0.67) have conceded less.

It’s not been an easy opening run of games with respect to injuries. Cherki is back in training after missing every game since Spurs (H). Rayan Ait-Nouri has been injured since Brighton (A). Khusnaov picked up an injury at Arsenal (A). All are expected to push for starting spots this season, and all are due back after the international break.

Rodri picked up a hamstring injury against Brentford and is set up 2-3 weeks out minimum. They’ve had to manage his return to full fitness to start the season. John Stones recently picked up a knock for a couple of matches, and Mateo Kovacic spent the first couple of months recovering from an injury.

When it comes to attacking players to change the game off the bench, remember that Savinho is trying to get up to full fitness; the bench has lacked that quality, which should be back after this international break. They’ll certainly need it with tough games coming up and the schedule tightening, playing every three days.

This is a quick comparison of shoot metrics between the different seasons Haaland has played for Manchester City. Small sample size. He’s scoring more goals, taking more shots, and having better quality chances than in any other season. It’s also interesting that the average shooting distance has decreased to just 10.5 yards.

That shooting distance average you can see below in his Premier League shooting map, with a cluster of shots slightly right of centre in the penalty box. Getting more chances created from the left side in Jeremy Doku and Nico O’Reilly. To open up his left foot to shoot back across the keeper. He’s not scored from a header in the Premier League yet despite accumulating 1.89xG with ten shots, but has scored two in the Champions League. Three header goals for Norway in the World Cup qualifying this season. That’s been a big area for Haaland to improve, and the early signs are that we’re going to see that jump across this season.

Just to hammer home the difference between Haaland and other players in the Premier League this season. For non-penalty xG, he’s on 7.71 with 9 non-penalty goals; the next nearest player is Jean-Philippe Mateta with 3.29 npxG and 1 non-penalty goal. Third place is Enzo Fernandez with 2.96 npxG with 2 non-penalty goals.

In Europe’s T5 leagues this season, Erling Haaland has scored the most non-penalty goals (9) with Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe behind him (7). He leads for npxG with 7.71, and second place Kylian Mbappe has 5.0 npxG. Not only is Haaland scoring an outrageous amount of goals to start the season, but the chances are there for him to do it, and unlike Mbappe (2) and Kane (4), he’s not had a penalty yet.

If we’re looking for the most involvement in a shot-ending sequence, here are the top five for Manchester City this season. Off the back of his performance against Brentford, Oscar Bobb is now in the top five. Encouraging for Tijjani Reijnders to be in this list despite joining the team in the summer and not being close to his best. Through injuries, Omar Marmoush and Rayan Cherki haven’t gotten a good run in the team, but both of them are capable of making the top five. As well as Savinho, with his transfer saga keeping him out of the team.

The top three per 90 leaders for shot sequence involvement are Phil Foden (6.42), Erling Haaland (5.05), and Tijjani Reijnders (4.97).

Coming back from the international break, even though the underlying numbers are all promising, you’ll want to see more players step up with goal contributions. Across all competitions, Phil Foden, Tijjani Reijnders, and Jeremy Doku have all provided 4 G+A. Six different players have scored at least one goal. Only Foden and Haaland have scored 2+ goals.

Reijnders absolutely is getting chances to score and should be after the international break. Marmoush and Cherki, coming back, are two scorers. As much as Jeremy Doku is creating, he should take more shots. The likes of Savinho and Bobb are both capable of chipping in as well. We’re only early into the season, there isn’t a lack of genuine scorers in the squad, but you’ll want to see more players on 2+ goals by the time we reach the November International break.

Nico Gonzalez hasn’t played as many minutes as the players included on the graphic below, yet he’s among the T12 for defensive actions in the middle third. He’s won the most tackles (12) for Manchester City this season across all competitions, and second most aerial duels won (17). On the ball, small improvements are coming every game, but off the ball, he’s taken a huge leap this season. Providing the stability in midfield that the team lacked without Rodri.

If you’re not already a follower of Ishdeep, then check out his account here for more graphics like the one attached above.

Donnarumma has come in to have a big impact on the way the team defends. You can see the communication between the group, the confidence he gives them, knowing how difficult it is to score against him. All whilst filling a void of experience and leadership from players who departed in the summer.

Nico O’Reilly is 4th for minutes played, leads the team for tackles and interceptions (29), has tackled the most dribblers (16), and is 2nd for carries into the final third (22). Building an excellent relationship with Jeremy Doku on the left side, knowing when to hold width, drag players out of positions with his runs, and burst into the box with underlapping runs. Earned a call-up to the England National team, and Ait-Nouri will have a tough time getting back into the team.

Jeremy Doku is 3rd in the Premier League for assists (3), carries into the penalty area (19), and successful take-ons (18). 2nd for progressive carries (44). Whether it’s his movement inside to find space between the lines, holdup play to progress the ball in the buildup, or his decision-making in the box. He’s gone up another level this season. Looking physically capable of handling the minutes this season, without injuries, playing back-to-back games.

Of course, this newsletter has to mention Phil Foden, who not only looks back towards his best, but also has more influence on the team. Across all areas of the pitch, all phases of the game, Phil Foden is going to be key for Manchester City this season, getting to the top.

One of the biggest issues on the pitch for Manchester City last season, especially during the first half of the season, was preventing the opposition from creating big chances via fast breaks. Only Leicester City (8.2) had conceded a higher amount of xG via fast breaks than Manchester City (8.1). Compare that to Arsenal and Liverpool, who conceded just 3.9 xG via fast breaks.

Since the 2018/19 season, other than last season, the most xG Manchester City had conceded via fast breaks in a Premier League season was 3.6 during the 2023/24 season. If we’re looking at those chances per 90, then it’s 0.212 xG, which is a great chance for the opposition every game. Teams like Nottingham Forest and Everton could afford to defend deep, knowing they’ll get the opportunity against City to score on the break.

You move forward to this season, Manchester City has only conceded 0.87xG via fast breaks, which is 0.124 xG per 90. The majority of that total is made up by the chance Igor Thiago had (0.46) in the last match against Brentford. The second-highest chance was from Odobert (0.17) in the Spurs (H) match. No fast breaks leading to a shot conceded against Wolves (A), United (H), and Arsenal (A). It’s a small sample size, which will get tested in the next run of games, but right now it’s trending in the right direction.

The movement off the ball, when in possession, has improved significantly with the likes of Foden and Reijnders in midfield, always making themselves available to receive the ball. The runs made by the forward line, that’s where I think we can see improvement, like in the last couple of games against Monaco and Brentford. Seeing wingers make runs behind the defensive line and from out-to-in attacking the half-space.

You also look at how the team builds up, especially against man-to-man pressing; that’s something they’ve shown against Spurs (H) and Brentford (A) in the second half to struggle with. With or without Donnarumma. The movement required to pull opposition players around to open up space isn’t quite there.

As pointed out by Ishdeep in the graphic below, Manchester City still has a big percentage of its turnovers taking place in their defensive third. Only Aston Villa (78) has been dispossessed more times in the Premier League this season than Manchester City (77). It’s a small sample size, but that has to improve. By extension of that, the buildup needs to improve, which was ovbious before Donnarumma arrived.

Errors leading to a shot are something to keep an eye on over the next set of games. Manchester City made 4 in the opening two games against Spurs (H) and Wolves (A), but since then has only made 2 in the last five Premier League matches.

We’ve seen in the opening games that the team is looking to find attackers quickly once recovering the ball high up the pitch. They’re third in the Premier League for shot-ending high turnovers. 20.8% of all high turnovers result in a shot, but they’ve not managed to score a goal from one yet. Once the pressing improves, they’ll pick up more high turnovers, but converting those chances, being efficient in front of goal, that has to improve over the course of the season.

On the defensive side, Manchester City has defended corners well. Along with Everton, the only two teams in the Premier League yet to concede from them. The flipside, they’re the only team in the league that hasn’t scored a set-piece goal. That includes free-kicks and penalties. Have taken the second fewest shots from set pieces and the third lowest xG accumulated.

For a start, the volume simply needs to increase, as Arsenal have taken almost double the number of corners as Manchester City this season. The return of Marmoush and Cherki should help; in addition to Foden, you’ve got more than enough quality takers there. Especially on the left side, you want to see more consistent deliveries targeting a zone. It’s an area where the team needs to improve once back from the international break.

The final point to mention for improvement is the pressing. It’s quite clear how they’ve initially intended to manage the workload for Rodri in his first few games back; fitness levels of others were behind, and the coordination wasn’t there from all the players. Of course, there were other factors in why City struggled to press Arsenal (A), but in the coming big games against Aston Villa and Liverpool, they’ve got to show improvement.

Looking ahead to the games after the international break, the match against Swansea will be a great opportunity to rest, rotate, and see some more minutes for academy players. That aside, all of the games bring some level of difficulty. As we saw against Monaco, you can play well for most of the match in the Champions League and not pick up all three points. Villarreal are 3rd in La Liga and Dortmund 2nd in the Bundesliga. Both have quality players who can hurt you.

Having several players back from injury and coming into this run of games after building a strong foundation, being undefeated in the last seven will be a huge boost. You need to start on the right foot, winning against Everton, to maintain the momentum into two difficult away trips.