Nottingham Forest 1-2 Manchester City Review

Premier League GW18

Another important away win for Manchester City, despite the struggles earlier in the season, to continue with the pace at the top of the table with Arsenal. Nottingham Forest did all they could to make it a tough game, and the team eventually found a way to pick up the three points.

MOTM: RAYAN CHERKI

Notable Stats:

• Since the start of November, Rayan Cherki has assisted more goals (7) than any other player in Europe's big-five leagues.

• Sean Dyche has never beaten Pep Guardiola in 17 Premier League games against him (D2 L15), the joint most one manager has faced another without ever winning, along with Steve Bruce against Alex Ferguson.

• Nico Gonzalez made 10 ball recoveries against Nottingham Forest, the joint-most he's made in a single match for Manchester City. The other was in the Champions League against Dortmund in November.

• So far this season, Josko Gvardiol has provided 6 goal-creating actions in the Premier League. That's more than Eberechi Eze, Anthony Gordon, Cody Gakpo, Bukayo Saka, Xavi Simons, and Florian Wirtz each have.
  
  Across all competitions, Gvardiol has 9, which is one short of his 23/24 total of 10 despite playing half the amount of minutes.

Game Stats:

Nottingham Forest 1-2 Manchester City

• xG: 0.8 - 1.4

• xThreat: 1.01 - 1.28

• Possession: 34.7% - 65.3%

• Field Tilt: 36.4% - 63.6%

• Penalty Box Shots: 5 - 9

• Deep Entries: 9 - 16

• PPDA: 13.8 - 9.0

• High Turnovers: 2 - 3

Here is a look at the 8-game rolling averages for xG and xGA this season for Manchester City, across all comps. Off the back of games against Newcastle and Real Madrid, you’ve seen the xGA spike, but since dropped back down. Continuing to create plenty of chances.

Manchester City has won six consecutive Premier League games. Eight across all competitions.

Donnarumma has completed 20 full 90s for Manchester City this season.

Rodri was back on the bench for the first time since Bournemouth (A) on the 1st of November 2025.

If you want to stay up-to-date on individual player minutes, back four combinations, underlying numbers, and more, check out the live Google sheet below. 👇

From Forest, it was a 4-5-1 with Gibbs-White dropping deeper to track players between the lines, as he does with Foden on the left side. Manchester City had both full-backs push up to hold the width, freeing Cherki and Foden to move into the half-spaces.

On one side, it helped to drive Hutchinson and CHO back, stopping them from being much of a threat in transition down the flank, but also limited the number of players ahead of the ball, ready to receive in the pockets.

When it came to pressing Nottingham Forest, the setup continued similarly to in previous games, with Haaland sticking onto one CB and aiming to force Forest to the left side. Reijnders curving his run to push Forest up the flank. Wingers tuck inside, then jump to press the full-backs.

Nico was tracking the movement of Gibbs-White. For the most part, Forest wants to find long balls into the likes of Gibbs-White and Jesus, where they could then spring counterattacks off the second ball.

Manchester City did have some joy down the left side, baiting Forest out to find O’Reilly in space on the touchline, before playing the ball back inside to Foden in the half-space or into the box. Couldn’t quite work it into good opportunities, but Gibbs-White started tracking him much closer.

Despite it not leading to a shot, the best chance for Forest came with the cross into Gibbs-White that he missed. A collection of chances across the first half for City were mostly blocked, but both sides struggled to create clear-cut chances in the opening 45.

One of the struggles for City in the first half, which they changed at half-time, was the shape. Too few players between the lines and ahead of the ball, as you can see when Nunes receives out on the touchline.

In the second half, Matheus Nunes acted as the RCB in possession, allowing the likes of Silva, Reijnders, and Cherki to move inside to receive the ball around the top of the box. This ended up being key for the first goal and other chances created.

Reijnders 48' 0-1 

The passes from Gvardiol into the pockets were there in the first half, but there were too many players behind the ball, and easy for Forest to cover. Not in the second half. Nunes deeper and Silva out wide, allowing Cherki, Reijnders, and Foden to all be free to receive in the middle.

Gvardiol plays it through to Cherki, who can turn and drive forward before playing a reverse pass into Reijnders inside the box. Weighting the pass so that no touch was needed. Shot across the keeper to the far bottom corner.

Hutchinson 54’ 1-1

Nottingham Forest doesn’t take long to equalize after Reijnders loses his footing on the edge of the box. They break forward in transition, and Nico Gonzalez makes a poor attempt to stop it.

Cherki is not quick enough to stop the passing from Gibbs-White out to Hudson-Odoi, or close off the pass inside back to Gibbs-White once CHO progresses Forest down the flank. Nico and Reijnders get back only to stand off Gibbs-White.

Collectively, they all could have done better to defend that transition, and once the ball is into the box, you have Gvardriol dragged across to defend the near-post, O’Reilly defending the box, and Hutchinson free at the back-post to score. These are situations they need to defend better in the new year if they want to win the title and go far in the Champions League.

Shortly after that, there was a flurry of Forest chances for Jesus (62’), Williams (66’), and Savona (66’) before eventually City took back control of the game.

Savinho (72’) on for Reijnders added the 1v1 threat on the right side, continuing to push Forest back, and leaving Cherki free to move inside at all times. From that, you see the players combine for an excellent chance that Foden has saved (73’).

There were no shots inside the box or even touches from Forest in the penalty area after the 70th minute as Manchester City closed them out and pushed to find the winner.

Cherki 83' 1-2  

The corner setup is what we've come to expect in recent games with Silva on the keeper and inside the 6-yard box, Haaland, Dias, and O'Reilly. Aggressive positioning of the two players at the top of the box. Gvardiol, the threat, and changing the delivery zone depending on the opposition.

Deep cross from Foden to the back-post. Headed down by Gvardiol and Cherki steps up to hit the ball on the half volley into the bottom left corner, winning the game. Despite the effort by MGW to try to block it on the line.

Nathan Ake (88’) came on for Rayan Cherki as Manchester City aimed to close out the game with a back five when defending the box, matching the runners, and three CBs around Jesus to win the long balls. O’Reilly is then free to move inside in possession. Savinho and Foden (90+1’) did have some chances to make it three goals in injury time, but in the end, it wasn’t needed.

Here is an excellent graphic by Pranav that highlights the progressive actions by each team in the match. Forest is looking for most of their progression playing long to Igor Jesus from the goalkeeper.

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Moving Forward

Without a doubt, this was always going to be a difficult game after Christmas, and Forest were set up well in the first half to limit Manchester City, even with the changes to the shape needed. Similar to Palace (A), Guardiola made the changes at half-time, and the players took advantage in the second to find the free man. The set-piece routines continue to pick up points for the team at a crucial period of the season.

They’ll need to defend transitions better in the new year; that’s evident in recent games, and on top of that, you need to get more impact from the squad. Pushing to start games and making a difference off the bench. From what we’ve seen lately with Savinho, Khusanov, and others. The return of Rodri to fitness. Semenyo is expected to arrive in the January window. All of the options are there to do it. Another tough game awaits against Sunderland.

Rayan Cherki, against Nottingham Forest, assisted the opening goal and scored the game-winner. 2/4 shots on target. 2/4 dribbles successful. Created the most chances (3). 5/8 ground duels won. Continuing to get more settled in the team, and of late, he’s stepped up in helping the team pick up three points, as we’ve seen from Foden and Haaland earlier in the season.

I’d have expected Cherki to become an important player over the course of the season, but he’s already cementing his place as a must-start.

For the most part, I thought Josko Gvardiol was excellent and showed the quality he’ll provide for years to come. He made the most progressive passes and carries against Nottingham Forest. Provided an assist for the game-winning goal. Made the joint most clearances. 4/7 ground duels won. 4/8 aerial duels won.

Has proven in the last few weeks to be a significant threat in set pieces, adding to his value in the team, and that continued against Forest for the winning goal.

We’ve seen this change several times already this season to see games out, to match the runners into the box with five defenders, have three CBs around in the middle to deal with long balls, and then O’Reilly in possession can advance higher on the pitch.

Next up for Manchester City is Sunderland (A) on the 1st of January at 20:00 (UK). At the Stadium of Light, they’ve yet to lose a single PL game this season. They’re also without significant players due to injuries and AFCON, as highlighted below. Sadiki, Ballard, and Mandava are all important players for Sunderland.

If you’re looking for more content, you can check out the latest Ninety Three Twenty podcast I was on to review the game against Sunderland. 👇