The Next Number One: James Trafford

For a majority of the summer, there were reports about Manchester City looking at Diogo Costa should Ederson depart, and in the end, it has swung over to Ortega being the candidate to leave. James Trafford is returning to be the backup keeper for the new season and long-term number one for Manchester City. The return has been confirmed by Manchester City as linked below.

It wasn’t that long ago that James Trafford didn’t concede a goal and saved a penalty in the final of the Euro U21s 2023. A double save to keep the lead sees England win the tournament. That team included Curtis Jones, Morgan Gibbs-White, Antony Gordon, Levi Colwill, and Noni Madueke. Cole Palmer got plenty of plaudits that tournament, providing an assist for the game winner, and eventually made his move to Chelsea. He was full of praise for Trafford post-match.

If we go back to the beginning, James Trafford was born in Cockermouth, which is named after being the mouth of the River Cocker, within Cumbria. His career started with Cockermouth and Carlisle United, signing with Manchester City in August 2015 at the age of 12. Trafford initially was a midfielder who volunteered to become a goalkeeper when he was nine.

Trafford came through the Manchester City Academy and went out on loan during the 21/22 season to Accrington Stanley in League One, which ended up being a challenging season for him. Dealing with injury and losing his starting spot, he returned to City and went back out on loan that season to Bolton in January.

He started well at Bolton, keeping four clean sheets in the opening four games, a record for the club. Becoming the first-choice keeper and rejoining the following summer to spend an entire season on loan there. Finishing the season with 26 clean sheets, which was a record for a Bolton goalkeeper in a single season. James Trafford won, alongside Conor Bradley, Bolton’s Young Player of the Year 22/23.

Off the back of the successful loan spell, James Trafford got plenty of attention and eventually was sold to Burnley, managed by Vincent Kompany at the time. The deal included a buyback option and matching rights to any offers, which is how they managed to resecure his signing this summer. Along with his desire to be the Manchester City number one in the future.

The 2023/24 season in the Premier League was a tough one for Trafford, a keeper not yet physically developed, jumping up two leagues to make saves against some of the best players in the world. Surrounded by a team that conceded the second most shots on target (244) that season, and in the bottom four for xGA with 70.4. For comparison, in the same season, Manchester City had an xGA of 35.6 and conceded 109 shots on target. Trafford was having to face 5.93 shots on target per game, ended the season conceding 2.21 goals per 90, and kept 2 clean sheets.

Last season in the Championship, it was quite different. Facing 2.29 shots on target per game, he finished the season conceding 0.36 goals per 90 and kept 29 clean sheets. This was built on a strong defensive unit from Burnley, the second fewest shots on target conceded (107) in the Championship last season. Second-lowest xGA conceded (39.1).

Here is a look at those shots faced during last season with this graphic from The Athletic.

One part of James Trafford stop stopping ability that brings some concern is getting down to low shots, especially on the right side of the goal. His left hand. Alex Barker posted a thread on Trafford explaining it in more detail, which you can find linked here. In the graphic above by The Athletic, and the one below from Wyscout, you can see the goals conceded in the bottom corner.

Essentially, his wide stance means he’s got to move his left leg closer to his right before pushing off back towards the left corner of the goal (his left, for the shooter, is the right side). It means he is above the ball with only his arm to reach down and stop the low shot. Slow to reach the corner and vulnerable to shots going beneath him. In a high-shot and high-quality shooter environment, that’ll be exposed. At Manchester City, the shot volume will be low, but it’s still a flaw to work on, given the quality of opposition. It could prove decisive in the Champions League knockout games. Not without his faults, but overall, his shot-stopping ability should be seen as an improvement on Ederson's long-term.

When Burnley was in the Premier League, Trafford dealt with 40 shots outside the box, conceded 12 goals from 10.2 xGOT. Underperforming in this area. Although both the quality and volume of shots will only decrease at Manchester City, as the opposition rarely pushes them back into a low block, and opens up this space. Trafford had a well-organised defense in front of him last season, only allowing 32 shots and conceding 3 goals from 5.1 xGOT. You can see from the Wyscout graphic above that a few of these shots are right on the edge of the box in central positions. You compare those numbers to Ederson, in arguably the worst City side under Guardiola, dealing with 13 shots outside the box and conceding 2 goals from 2.1 xGOT.

Below are all the shots Burnley conceded outside the box during the 23/24 PL season. Gives you a clear view of the task Trafford had that season, dealing with some of the best shooters given time on the edge of the box.

At the start, I mentioned the crucial penalty saved in the U21 Euro 2023 Final. For Bolton (21/22) in League One, he saved a penalty to secure a draw. For Burnley last season in the Championship, he made two penalty saves in the same match against Sunderland, securing a draw that was important for Burnley getting promotion. If we go back to his season in the Premier League 23/24 with Burnley, albeit with a poor defense in front of him, Trafford conceded 5/5 penalties, and three of those are in the bottom corner we mentioned earlier. Against the best shooters who can place it in the corner, Trafford is too slow to get across in time. Not including youth games, Trafford has saved 4/9 penalties during his career. That’s 44.4%. Ederson for Manchester City has saved 6/36, which is a 16.7% save percentage.

One area he struggled with in the Premier League during the 23/24 season was getting bullied physically from set pieces. Expected for a young goalkeeper. Opposition targets him with inswinger deliveries into the 6-yard box and puts the second delivery straight back in. Putting a couple of players on Trafford to disrupt him. Burnley's use of zonal marking meant no one supported him, and he wasn’t able to command his area himself.

Not surprisingly, then that from corners, he faced 23 shots and conceded 10 goals from 6.3 xGOT during the season in the PL. Last season in the Championship, which improved with facing 19 shots, only 3 goals were conceded from 4.81 xGOT. Of course, he’s not going to face a high volume of corners at Manchester City moving forward. Ederson, by comparison, last season faced 9 corners, conceding 3 goals from 4.5 xGOT. To add to the positives, Trafford is a proactive keeper, in the middle of his goal, looking to claim crosses where he can. Comfortable catching it as he is getting a good connection on a punch clear.

Last season, Manchester City struggled with preventing crosses into the box as Ederson faced 8.68 per 90 and stopped 5.8% of those. Although for Ederson, that is an outlier of a season, as in previous years, he’s been averaging over 6%. Trafford in the Championship faced 11.7 per 90 and stopped 5.7% of those. During the 23/24 Premier League season, Trafford faced 15.0 per 90 and stopped 7.2% of those. Not a huge difference between the two of them when you’re looking at the numbers, but when you’ve watched Trafford last season, he’s taken a big step forward in this area, being decisive when the moment comes.

Sweeping actions outside the penalty area is another area to keep an eye on, which will change from the setup he was used to at Burnley last season. Ederson has, in most seasons, averaged 1.55 outside PA actions and the average distance of 17.8 yards.

You look at James Trafford 23/24 under Kompany with 1.54 outside PA actions with an average distance of 15.0 yards. During the 24/25 season, that changes to 1.45 outside PA actions with an average distance of 14.2 yards. The further you come out, as he will at Manchester City, the smaller your margin for error is in misreading those situations.

In 1v1 situations, he’s more measured than he was in previous seasons, quick to get off his line and set into a position. Won’t be charging for the ball, more like Ortega in this regard.

Below is a graphic from Wyscout on his actions outside the penalty area for Burnley last season. Certainly willing to come far off his line and is used frequently by Burnley in possession. Often playing short passes to Egan-Riley (RCB) after sweeping the ball.

Here is a look at his distribution with Burnley last season, through the graphic by Wyscout. Playing out from the back, short, and under pressure, Trafford will slot right in at Manchester City. Short passes he can play with either foot. Can give you the driven passes straight into the pivots or striker dropping. Can chip balls out to the wingers and full-backs on the flank.

It’s the long passes of 40m+ where Trafford’s accuracy drops. In the graphic, it’s got him listed as 53.3%. Often lofts these passes rather than adding drive to them like you’d see from Ederson. Part of that you’d expect, he’s averaging distances further than Ederson does during the season. Trafford averaged 30.8 yards with 27.1% of his passes over 40 yards. Ederson averaged 27.9 yards with 17.4% of his passes over 40 yards. That being said, it’s the area for him to work on and his biggest gap distribution-wise to Ederson.

Hand passes at the bottom, only missing one, and evenly distributed. He used this a few times for Burnley to quickly take advantage of the space and launch a transition.

Here are the goal-kicks in the graphic below for Trafford last season. You can see the area on the left side of the pitch that they try to hit. City, through Ederson, usually directs their goal-kicks that go long to the right side of the pitch, so that will be a change to watch out for simply due to Trafford being right-footed. The volume of these passes that are launched (40+ yards) will be far lower at Manchester City. Trafford last season launched 68.7% of his goal kicks. Ederson, by comparison, launched 23.4%.

This is a look at his passing map from last season, provided by The Athletic, and you can see the spot on the left side of the pitch I mentioned above. For goal-kicks, being right-footed, this is the area he’ll hit. Compare that to open play, Trafford is very well balanced, playing through the press with short passes. Opens up his body when receiving the ball like a midfielder. Can use his left foot for short passes.

Here is a look at Ederson, Ortega, and Trafford on several different metrics for passing. As you can see highlighted in red, although there is concern over Trafford’s long passing that I covered earlier, the volume of long passes he’s got to do that are launched (40+ yards) is far more than he would do at Manchester City. Let alone the way City would set up to create space for that pass.

If you’re comparing that setup at Burnley to Manchester City in how they use their long passes, it’s completely different. Trafford is launching most of his goal kicks, not building up from the back, and looking to hit the forwards on the edge of the final third. When Manchester City goes long, it’s mostly to pick out the likes of Haaland and Marmoush they’ve created space for, manipulating man-to-man presses. Less so about finding your target man to win an aerial duel, knocking it down to an attacking player. Although that is something we might see more of next season.

The volume is much less; it’s more about baiting the option press, having the ability to deliver the pass, and picking the right moment to use it.

Here is a quick comparison between Ederson, Trafford, and Ortega over several different metrics. I’ve included the last two for Trafford and Ortega. Every season Ederson has spent with Manchester City. For any metric that a player has the highest, good or bad, they’ve been highlighted in green/red.

Worth pointing out potential minutes for James Trafford next season as a number two keeper. Ortega played 1,800 minutes last season across all competitions, with 810 (45%) of those minutes coming when Ederson was injured. On top of that, there is a long-term plan for him to take over as number one; Ederson’s contract runs out next summer, and that is the pathway clear. We’ve seen plenty of occasions in the last couple of seasons that Guardiola will drop Ederson for Ortega for specific games, or a drop in performance. Added to the fact that we’ll play 55+ games next season, I wouldn’t be concerned about him getting enough minutes.

Last point, which is more of a question right now, is how much of an impact Trafford being right-footed has on the buildup structure. We’ve seen in numerous seasons that Ederson will, at times when the team is pushed back, step out to be an LCB in possession, outnumbering the opposition press. Trafford instead stepping out to be the RCB, pushing Dias/Khusanov to RB, and allowing Nunes to push onto the last line could be something we see.

Overall, Trafford has made improvements over the last season. There is a calmness to his presence in goal, always scanning and reading the moment so he can make the right action. More measured in 1v1 situations, narrowing the angle and getting himself into the right position to make a save. Confident playing through the opposition press and picking out passes under pressure. Far more assured in commanding his box. Maintains his concentration throughout a game and has his hands positioned evenly from his body, ready to react.

That being said, the concerns mentioned about nailing the long passes, covering low shots placed into his bottom left corner, and lingering concerns about his handling of corners remain. Most of which will be worked on during his first season at Manchester City. That’s why the setup of Ederson initially remaining the number one allows James Trafford to ease his way into the role, reduce the risk, and have the time to make any adjustments. Long-term, he’s capable of being the number one keeper after Ederson, has the well-rounded skillset, and is the future number one keeper for England.

If you’re looking for more content and haven’t checked out our YouTube channel yet, then head over to the video linked. Looking at what changes we could see from Manchester City next season. 👇