Thoughts on Manchester City 2025/26

With the team expected to return to training today, I wanted to run through some of my thoughts, whether positive or negative, ahead of the new season. What I’ve discussed on the YouTube channel, past newsletters, and on the X account.

I have to mention at the start, thank you to everyone whose supported the YouTube channel so far. 624 subscribers last time I checked, in just over a month. 

Now, there is no better place to start than the squad size, which I’d expect to hear answers on this week for departures. Unless they intend to have players unregistered, more need to depart. Below is an example squad where I’ve jumped ahead with the Trafford move, had Ortega depart, and all the players on the left have their future up in the air. Claudio Echeverri and Sverre Nypan are likely to go out on loan.

I’ve used the CL rules for squad size, as I don’t expect them to run different squads for the PL, and that leaves you right now with one non-HG remaining. Two homegrown spots. Total squad size of twenty-five, although Bettinelli won’t be playing. However you want to look at it, depending on the players you think would be better to keep, we can all see they need departures ASAP. That’s going to be clear to the group when they see everyone in training.

Thread on the CL Squad & Homegrown Rules found here.

To keep it short on the goalkeeping situation, the best of both worlds is to have kept Ederson and bring in Trafford as the long-term number one. He’s an incredible talent who does have areas to improve. This way, they get all the upside of a future England #1 whilst having Ederson to cover the risk of throwing him in too soon. Being HG opens up a space for Viana to work with. Trafford is going to push Ederson and be ready to take his place if the opportunity comes up. Manchester City are in a great position for goalkeepers this season.

In what has become the most viewed video on the Sky Blue Times YouTube channel, I discussed all the kinds of tactical changes that we could see next season from Manchester City. You can find that linked below.

Tucking the full-backs inside next to the number six against Wydad. The Carrying ability of Tijjani Reijnders from the goalkicks and in transition. Full-backs holding the width, split-strikers, and a high box against Al-Ain. Vacating the middle to open up passing lanes. The rotations against Juventus. The improvements in pressing. Concerns out-of-possession. Jeremy Doku is in a central position. The set-piece routines, attacking the back-post. The passing quality added to the team.

We got to see plenty of new ideas at the tournament, more than I’ve mentioned above, and discussed in the video, which is encouraging heading into the new season. Speaks to the refreshment of the group and how they’ve used the Club World Cup not only to bed in new players but to work on solutions.

As pointed out by these two graphics by The Athletic, Manchester City last season had an outlier (8.1) for xG conceded via fast breaks. During the 23/24 season, there was a discussion around how vulnerable the team was in transition, but the quality of chances didn’t match that. During the 24/25 season, teams were consistently getting shots off inside the box, completing an above-average amount of crosses into the box, and feeling as if they could always score against City.

You then take that 8.1xG and compare it to the rest of the Premier League; you can see the gap to Arsenal and Liverpool. Both conceded more than Manchester City had in any single season from 2018/19 to 2023/24, but for last season, less than half of the 8.1xG City conceded, and that was a part of why they finished in front.

It’s worth mentioning that this wasn’t the story for the entire season; it crept in over the opening games. Think about the Fulham match where there were problems, but the team came through them. Eventually, they couldn’t handle it, and they faced a losing period during the winter months. In the second half of the season, the team did find stability at the expense of their attacking threat. Next season, they’ll need to find that threat whilst maintaining their defensive solidity.

Personnel changes will play a significant role. Having Rodri and Nico as your two sixes compared to Kovacic and Gundogan. Huge upgrade. Adding Tijjani Reijnders with his energy off the ball, quality passing in the final third, and drive carrying the ball through midfield. Upgrade on Gundogan. Ait-Nouri as the starting left-back, capable of crossing out wide as he moves inside, allowing Josko Gvardiol to be the starter at LCB, is another huge upgrade.

In the previous newsletter, I covered the data from the Club World Cup, and one of the huge takeaways was the improvements from Phil Foden in his movement. Off the ball to find space to receive, and his pressing. Having him back to his best is another boost for the team heading into the new season. SKILLCORNER did a great article on the modern playmaker, which you can find linked here. Phil Foden ranks throughout it as one of the very best, exceptional on the half-turn, as highlighted by this graphic included below.

Another important takeaway from the Club World Cup is seeing the quality of passers we’ve added to the team, along with those returning from injury/finding form. Kovacic didn’t play in the tournament due to injury, but is likely to have been around the same level as Rico Lewis. You can see in the graphic player the volume of line-breaking passes you’re getting from Rodri, Nico, Cherki, and Reijnders in comparison to last season's midfield options.

Another angle from the Club World Cup is the physical data. Below are the top three for each metric across each game at the tournament. No player’s name appears more than Tijjani Reijnders. Covering the most distance in two matches. You also see the likes of Ait-Nouri and Nunes appear, not surprisingly, as full-backs, and that’s given the team an injection of athleticism they’ve needed. One big problem last season, during the middle portion, was sustaining performances for ninety minutes. Those three players can all do that.

Speaking of Tijjani Reijnders, below is a thread on what his ball-carrying ability can bring to the team. How does he differ from Kovacic? We’ve seen him use it in the CWC from the goalkicks against Hilal. In the buildup to Erling Haaland’s goal against Juventus, carrying through midfield and was played through by Nunes. In the biggest games, I think Reijnders’ carrying ability is going to prove decisive for a few wins.

It’s the clear hole in the team ahead of the new season, compared to other title rivals. I’d be confident in near enough all areas of the pitch other than right-back. I put together a comparison of several different metrics between right-back options on the market and our current group. If the candidates were in the top three, they are highlighted in green. On the left side, our short-term options from last season, where I’ve highlighted in blue if they would make the top three among the options on the right. Also included Walker 17/18 to show you how many boxes he was able to tick in his prime.

It’s clear to see Nunes is our best short-term option, but he comes with faults, which should be used to direct the type of long-term right-back they sign. The standouts by using the table will be the likes of Martim Fernandes (19), Juanlu Sanchez (21), and Vanderson (24). The first two, you’re taking a big risk on their lack of experience in an area City has previously not liked to. Even Livramento has played two full PL seasons before joining. Vanderson is more experienced, but I’d be concerned about whether his strength and 1v1 defending are an improvement on Nunes.

So instead, I thought it would be better to talk through the profile of the right-back they should be looking for. Below is a video on that. Experience, as already mentioned, is one factor; right now, they’re limited to HG unless more outgoings take place, and they shouldn’t be rushing to a short-term poor fit. I’d love to see a new right-back come in, but not just to tick that box; it has to be the right one. Along with that, the player must improve where Nunes struggles, namely pressing out wide, defending long/second balls, and defending 1v1.

Last point I wanted to mention is this table I put together on our previous and current wingers. At least online, Savinho and Doku have seemingly been controversial players, but for me, the underlying numbers are far too promising to be doubtful. Especially for wingers, they all mature at different ages with their decision-making in the final third.

I’ve pulled the best individual seasons from Sane, Sterling, Mahrez, and Grealish. Any metric where a player is in the top three has been highlighted in blue. Sterling dominates for his goal scoring, Sane for his assists, and you can see the exceptional season Mahrez had in 2019/20 in many different metrics.

Last season shouldn’t have been a defining one for young players, given how poor the team was across the board. Savinho, in his first season, has a clear area to improve in his shooting, but he showed that he’s going to provide lots of chances with his crossing. Combines well with players moving inside; the goal against Arsenal (H) comes to mind.

Jeremy Doku has a superpower in his ability to carry and dribble past players. He’s putting up 12+ progressive carries per 90 in the last two seasons and 6+ carries into the penalty area. Those are numbers most wingers will never reach, and a valuable skill to bring. The Club World Cup showed an improvement from him in the final third, being more decisive in the final action, and getting better chances.

There are other smaller issues for sure that the team needs to deal with this season, but I just wanted to outline the main ones in this newsletter: trimming down the squad, bringing in a right-back, the personnel changes, and players we’ll want to see take a step forward. They’ve got to find the balance in the rest defense, apply better pressure on the ball, and be clean in dealing with long balls/second balls. Outscoring teams won’t be much of an issue. How they defend will dictate winning the Premier League title.

Let me know if I’ve missed anything you want to see covered. Don’t forget to get out the YouTube channel. Season preview to follow before the first Premier League match of the season.

Before we wrap up, if you’re looking to remind yourself of the issues last season and want to hear a discussion on whether we’re better able to deal with them this season, check out the podcast linked below. Pull quotes from Guardiola, we covered the central defender injuries, mistakes dealing with long balls, lack of desire, struggles to sustain ninety-minute performances, and plenty more. 👇